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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-11-13T17:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-11-13T17:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34604/-1
CME Note: CME first seen in the SE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-11-13T17:12Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 in later frames. This event is not currently visible in STEREO A CORA due to a data gap beginning at 13/15:23Z. The source of this event is a minor eruption beginning at approx. 13/15:45Z located at approx. S20E05 as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193 and 211
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-17T02:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/34607/1
Model Inputs:
2024-11-13T17:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-6.0, Lat.=-20.0, Speed=499.0, HalfAngle=16.0, Time21.5=2024-11-13T23:29Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-11-17T02:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-16T14:00Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-11-16T10:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241113_232900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241113_232900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241113_232900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241113_232900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241113_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241113_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241113_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241113_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241113_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241113_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241113_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241113_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241113_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241113_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241113_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241113_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241113_232900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 74.37 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M) on 2024-11-13T23:38Z

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